* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/26/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 130 121 114 107 100 94 84 76 58 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 140 130 121 114 107 100 94 84 69 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 140 131 121 113 106 97 88 77 62 37 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 15 17 17 16 9 12 17 27 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 -3 -7 -3 4 7 4 7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 82 79 86 101 118 160 195 203 248 247 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.7 28.5 28.9 29.3 31.4 28.6 26.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 161 160 159 151 149 153 158 173 151 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.8 -49.4 -49.4 -49.7 -49.3 -49.2 -48.4 -48.1 -47.1 -47.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.9 2.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 7 8 5 6 5 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 71 72 74 63 63 59 59 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 25 25 24 25 25 21 18 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 8 4 22 31 57 33 29 81 84 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 48 18 3 12 35 -10 3 38 56 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -8 -7 -9 -6 -5 -6 -10 -3 -16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 598 565 547 497 464 327 171 41 6 -260 -507 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.7 20.5 22.4 24.2 25.8 27.8 29.5 30.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.2 112.9 113.3 113.7 113.9 113.7 112.6 110.6 108.6 106.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 13 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 14 11 15 10 4 5 9 5 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 150 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 451 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -19. -32. -44. -56. -66. -76. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -14. -14. -10. -6. -2. 1. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -8. -13. -31. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -26. -33. -40. -46. -55. -64. -82. -84. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 17.7 111.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/26/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 512.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.2 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -76.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.82 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/26/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##