* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/26/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 142 133 125 118 108 103 95 83 67 64 62 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 150 142 133 125 118 108 103 95 74 45 32 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 150 142 134 126 119 105 97 87 68 43 32 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 16 17 11 11 20 24 30 39 46 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 -1 -3 -7 0 6 8 8 10 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 94 84 95 110 144 189 199 226 254 238 234 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.1 29.8 30.0 29.5 29.2 28.9 29.1 31.6 29.7 27.6 26.5 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 162 165 159 157 154 156 172 162 140 128 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -49.4 -49.4 -49.7 -49.3 -49.0 -48.7 -47.6 -47.2 -47.1 -47.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 71 71 70 71 66 62 63 57 56 56 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 26 27 25 25 24 19 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 11 9 27 49 34 31 69 80 79 92 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 39 35 24 5 24 13 -15 38 63 37 2 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 -5 -8 -1 -5 -5 -9 -7 3 -8 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 599 569 547 504 477 383 187 67 66 -148 -380 -560 -718 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.8 21.6 23.8 25.6 27.2 29.0 30.7 31.6 31.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.3 112.1 112.7 113.2 113.7 113.6 112.8 111.2 109.7 108.3 106.6 104.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 9 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 18 15 12 15 5 1 8 38 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -21. -35. -49. -62. -73. -83. -92. -97. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -11. -7. -3. 0. 4. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -10. -23. -23. -21. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -6. -6. -3. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -25. -32. -42. -47. -55. -67. -83. -86. -88. -91. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 17.5 110.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/26/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 589.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.62 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/26/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##