* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/26/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 142 135 129 120 111 104 97 90 72 60 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 150 142 135 129 120 111 104 97 78 58 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 150 143 135 127 121 108 97 86 74 57 35 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 13 14 14 16 15 10 14 15 24 28 45 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 -5 -4 3 7 4 11 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 76 88 84 75 86 105 139 179 211 240 246 248 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.2 28.5 29.1 29.9 31.5 28.8 26.8 25.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 163 162 164 157 149 155 164 172 154 133 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.7 -49.8 -49.5 -49.3 -49.5 -49.1 -49.1 -48.4 -47.7 -46.7 -46.3 -46.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 5 6 5 8 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 71 72 71 71 64 64 56 49 50 48 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 26 28 27 26 23 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 35 22 12 5 40 46 31 33 74 94 110 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 29 34 28 34 20 -24 21 -20 -1 10 21 -17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -5 -8 -5 -3 -5 -11 -8 -3 21 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 548 602 596 559 536 448 306 130 -8 0 -245 -521 -817 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.5 17.7 18.3 18.8 20.5 22.5 24.3 25.9 27.6 29.4 31.1 32.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 110.5 111.3 112.0 112.7 113.5 113.7 113.3 112.1 110.6 108.7 106.6 104.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 11 11 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 22 17 15 11 12 3 7 5 5 9 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -20. -34. -47. -59. -71. -79. -87. -92. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -13. -9. -4. -0. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. -0. 1. 0. -1. -5. -17. -27. -25. -23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -15. -21. -30. -39. -46. -53. -60. -78. -90. -92. -94. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 17.2 109.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/26/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 527.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.31 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/26/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##