* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/25/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 150 148 142 134 126 111 101 93 83 70 53 50 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 150 148 142 134 126 111 101 93 83 59 41 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 150 148 142 135 127 114 101 90 79 55 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 16 20 19 12 11 16 18 24 28 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 1 9 3 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 83 83 85 69 93 123 138 187 228 236 258 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.1 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.2 28.6 29.1 30.8 31.0 28.3 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 165 165 164 162 161 156 150 156 171 172 149 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -49.6 -49.6 -49.6 -49.6 -49.2 -49.2 -49.3 -49.0 -48.3 -47.7 -46.6 -46.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 1.6 2.1 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 5 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 72 73 72 67 63 57 48 48 49 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 30 30 30 30 29 28 26 19 9 6 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 53 38 24 15 28 58 40 54 58 71 97 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 42 15 8 21 22 7 0 -17 13 32 3 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -3 -8 -10 -1 -9 -7 0 -2 0 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 476 542 606 575 557 472 405 258 72 -12 -62 -326 -645 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.3 17.5 17.9 18.3 19.7 21.2 22.9 24.8 26.3 27.6 29.3 31.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.7 110.6 111.3 112.1 113.0 113.5 113.5 112.9 111.6 109.7 107.6 105.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 13 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 20 21 18 15 13 7 1 8 3 8 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 432 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -19. -32. -46. -57. -68. -77. -83. -87. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -15. -20. -17. -11. -7. -3. 0. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 0. -2. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -4. -13. -27. -29. -31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -5. -5. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -8. -16. -24. -39. -49. -57. -67. -80. -97. -100. -104. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 150. LAT, LON: 17.1 108.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/25/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.44 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 500.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 150.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.67 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -74.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/25/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##