* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/25/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 155 157 153 143 133 113 101 92 84 80 72 63 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 155 157 153 143 133 113 101 92 84 69 62 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 155 155 149 141 132 115 100 88 80 65 60 38 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 11 16 18 18 22 16 10 10 18 26 34 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 1 1 0 -1 -5 -5 0 5 5 2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 69 80 86 94 82 83 113 155 177 195 241 256 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.6 30.1 30.0 30.1 29.8 29.9 29.1 28.6 29.0 30.0 31.6 29.5 27.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 166 165 166 162 163 155 150 154 165 172 160 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.0 -49.7 -49.7 -49.7 -49.6 -49.8 -49.4 -49.1 -48.6 -48.5 -47.7 -47.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 7 6 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 72 72 74 72 65 67 64 54 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 27 27 25 27 26 24 23 21 17 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 56 49 39 23 17 34 31 16 40 77 56 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 43 58 44 32 57 9 17 -13 18 29 -11 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 -4 -5 -6 -3 -3 -8 -8 -12 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 409 479 550 602 593 513 443 314 150 -13 20 -196 -418 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.6 17.8 19.1 20.7 22.4 23.9 25.5 27.0 28.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.9 109.8 110.7 111.6 112.8 113.6 113.7 113.2 112.0 110.4 108.5 106.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 9 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 25 19 21 16 12 9 3 2 6 20 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 362 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -20. -34. -48. -60. -71. -81. -86. -90. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -7. -11. -15. -23. -21. -15. -9. -4. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 7. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. -9. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 4. 3. 0. -0. -3. -9. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -2. -12. -22. -42. -54. -63. -71. -75. -83. -92. -99. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 155. LAT, LON: 17.1 108.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/25/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.71 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.39 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 520.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 155.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -72.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.76 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/25/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##