* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/25/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 135 135 132 128 120 110 106 100 96 87 75 63 62 59 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 135 135 135 132 128 120 110 106 100 96 70 63 40 31 28 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 135 134 132 129 126 117 103 92 84 78 59 54 38 30 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 9 15 14 18 20 11 14 18 19 21 30 32 36 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -3 0 6 5 15 6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 81 84 94 97 72 90 135 164 189 219 224 238 249 242 N/A N/A SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.8 29.3 29.1 28.7 29.2 30.8 31.7 30.8 28.6 27.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 167 168 166 162 157 155 151 156 170 170 171 151 135 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.7 -49.5 -49.5 -49.4 -48.8 -48.8 -48.3 -47.8 -47.6 -47.5 -48.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 5 6 7 6 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 70 72 72 71 75 73 65 64 64 51 43 35 33 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 24 25 28 27 26 25 25 21 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 65 59 47 34 18 15 28 20 30 60 72 73 57 52 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 16 2 36 49 27 35 20 3 -16 2 51 12 10 -12 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -2 0 0 0 -6 -8 -1 -8 -4 -5 -8 17 16 4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 405 487 551 608 562 484 398 248 92 -32 38 -84 -301 -570 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.4 17.5 18.3 19.8 21.5 23.3 24.9 26.0 26.8 27.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.0 109.0 109.9 110.7 112.2 113.3 113.8 113.9 113.1 111.7 110.3 109.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 8 11 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 27 26 27 20 14 15 6 0 7 4 25 8 9 9 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 371 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -10. -21. -32. -42. -51. -58. -66. -68. -69. -70. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -12. -9. -5. -2. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 6. 5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 6. 6. 5. 6. 0. -7. -18. -16. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -3. -7. -15. -25. -29. -35. -39. -48. -60. -72. -73. -76. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 17.1 107.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/25/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.03 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 460.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/25/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##