* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/25/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 130 129 127 123 117 113 109 105 98 91 78 74 70 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 130 128 130 129 127 123 117 113 109 105 98 78 47 33 29 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 127 126 124 122 116 105 91 82 76 71 57 38 30 28 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 3 7 13 10 15 8 9 14 24 32 39 47 35 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 3 2 3 2 -2 -6 2 0 1 4 9 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 112 35 67 78 87 83 129 156 190 203 228 225 246 252 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 30.6 30.7 30.3 30.4 30.1 29.6 29.2 28.7 29.3 29.5 31.8 29.9 28.2 27.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 163 171 171 168 169 166 160 156 151 157 160 171 164 145 134 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.8 -49.5 -49.4 -49.0 -48.8 -48.4 -48.1 -47.6 -47.9 -48.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.3 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 4 6 5 8 5 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 71 72 74 74 70 64 67 58 49 47 43 35 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 21 22 23 27 27 25 23 25 23 20 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 74 65 55 46 21 16 11 8 15 37 84 84 95 59 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 2 16 44 45 25 46 -5 3 11 25 5 41 4 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -2 -1 -3 -6 -3 -4 -3 -11 -16 -12 32 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 275 329 403 476 549 558 498 413 273 134 33 61 -150 -328 -470 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 17.6 18.1 19.4 21.2 22.8 24.4 26.0 27.4 28.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.1 107.1 108.1 109.1 110.0 111.5 113.0 113.6 113.6 113.4 112.7 111.2 109.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 7 7 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 30 27 28 29 17 12 7 2 8 12 37 8 8 8 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 135 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 314 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. -0. -1. -8. -18. -28. -37. -46. -53. -58. -61. -63. -65. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 4. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 8. 8. 9. 7. 3. -10. -9. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -0. -1. -3. -7. -13. -17. -21. -25. -32. -39. -52. -56. -60. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 17.1 106.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/25/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 38.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.07 0.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 12.7% 8.8% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 4.9% 3.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.4% 1.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/25/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##