* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 135 132 129 127 127 122 121 121 117 114 107 104 93 77 74 73 70 V (KT) LAND 135 132 129 127 127 122 121 121 117 114 107 104 74 62 38 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 135 130 125 123 122 122 117 110 99 90 84 77 56 50 34 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 9 7 8 14 14 15 10 11 13 14 23 32 46 37 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -3 -1 1 1 0 -2 -4 2 3 6 10 5 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 110 90 94 101 56 66 73 84 115 169 214 221 244 249 260 257 271 SST (C) 30.5 29.9 29.8 30.3 30.9 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.2 28.7 29.3 29.3 30.4 31.7 29.4 27.6 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 170 164 163 168 171 168 168 164 156 151 157 156 168 171 159 140 129 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.0 -49.8 -50.2 -50.3 -49.9 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.1 -49.1 -48.8 -48.7 -48.3 -49.0 -50.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.5 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 7 8 7 8 7 7 4 5 5 7 3 4 0 700-500 MB RH 64 63 67 68 70 73 76 76 74 66 69 55 44 36 30 29 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 20 20 23 26 30 30 28 30 29 29 20 7 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 48 53 75 74 65 44 20 15 20 24 30 38 42 30 -8 -2 9 200 MB DIV 30 48 35 29 41 66 53 13 18 27 2 70 9 8 -21 -25 -11 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 -2 -2 -1 -5 -5 -4 -3 -6 -6 0 -1 1 0 0 LAND (KM) 192 220 260 304 370 527 539 462 396 284 134 71 -40 12 -195 -417 -602 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.4 18.2 19.4 20.9 22.6 24.4 25.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 104.9 105.8 106.8 107.7 109.6 111.2 112.4 113.2 113.5 113.4 112.9 112.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 8 6 7 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 37 24 22 23 32 27 20 15 7 2 8 11 5 2 8 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 417 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -10. -20. -29. -38. -47. -54. -59. -61. -64. -64. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -7. -6. -5. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 8. 10. 9. 11. 9. 9. -2. -16. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -8. -13. -14. -14. -18. -21. -28. -31. -42. -58. -61. -62. -65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 135. LAT, LON: 16.7 103.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.02 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 507.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 135.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.74 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 12.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 4.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##