* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 142 142 139 136 128 117 114 108 104 98 95 90 87 79 74 71 V (KT) LAND 140 142 142 139 136 128 117 114 108 104 98 95 90 58 56 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 140 141 139 136 133 127 119 110 99 89 83 79 76 52 55 45 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 12 9 14 18 19 20 11 12 14 19 30 36 38 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 -3 -2 0 2 0 0 -6 -2 2 4 2 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 101 113 102 97 95 66 79 75 95 123 169 208 215 243 262 274 275 SST (C) 30.7 30.9 30.3 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.3 29.6 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.5 30.6 31.9 31.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 168 165 168 169 170 168 160 156 155 153 158 169 169 169 165 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.5 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -49.6 -49.3 -49.0 -49.2 -48.8 -49.3 -49.8 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 9 8 8 8 8 7 5 4 5 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 67 65 63 66 68 71 75 78 75 72 71 69 57 47 39 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 22 22 24 28 27 30 28 28 27 29 26 25 21 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 59 52 51 71 71 56 36 18 25 20 29 37 38 26 0 -18 7 200 MB DIV 50 -7 11 4 27 58 37 30 5 9 38 55 45 9 -14 -6 -9 700-850 TADV -3 0 -2 0 -3 -4 -4 -8 -6 -1 -5 -2 0 0 1 2 4 LAND (KM) 188 192 208 258 301 440 578 504 416 332 189 112 21 -11 52 -21 -101 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.4 17.7 18.7 20.2 21.9 23.6 25.0 26.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 103.9 104.8 105.8 106.7 108.6 110.4 111.8 112.8 113.3 113.4 113.3 112.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 35 42 25 25 31 24 25 21 12 4 1 6 11 1 41 7 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -12. -22. -32. -41. -50. -57. -62. -64. -66. -68. -72. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -10. -9. -5. -2. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 6. 11. 10. 10. 8. 9. 5. 4. -1. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. -1. -4. -12. -23. -26. -32. -36. -42. -45. -50. -53. -61. -66. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 16.4 103.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 565.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.93 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 35.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 2.2% 1.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##