* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 139 137 132 129 123 117 114 112 106 102 98 94 89 78 70 71 V (KT) LAND 140 139 137 132 129 123 117 114 112 106 102 98 94 89 66 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 135 131 129 125 119 113 107 96 90 86 82 73 53 40 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 14 11 11 19 22 19 10 11 11 13 14 13 14 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -2 -4 -4 0 4 10 19 9 6 SHEAR DIR 83 89 92 88 102 75 74 75 91 96 144 176 201 229 224 257 240 SST (C) 30.8 30.6 30.7 30.3 30.0 30.7 30.2 30.5 30.1 29.5 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.9 31.7 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 168 165 171 167 170 166 159 153 155 157 160 162 168 168 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -49.7 -49.9 -49.7 -49.8 -49.1 -49.5 -49.0 -49.0 -48.5 -49.0 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 11 7 8 8 8 6 7 5 6 4 5 4 6 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 65 68 72 76 78 79 75 72 73 66 59 54 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 23 25 29 30 32 32 30 31 31 30 27 16 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 53 51 63 58 50 31 29 27 30 37 36 34 29 14 3 200 MB DIV 58 30 14 13 26 55 63 18 35 17 17 28 72 26 20 29 10 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -1 -2 0 -4 -2 -7 -6 -1 -6 -7 -1 0 -5 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 216 216 208 230 275 375 509 544 414 340 233 137 79 56 -19 0 43 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.7 16.8 17.0 17.4 18.1 19.8 21.4 22.8 23.9 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.3 103.0 103.8 104.7 105.5 107.5 109.4 110.9 112.2 112.9 113.0 113.0 112.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 8 9 10 9 9 9 8 6 4 4 5 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 48 36 39 30 26 34 27 22 15 5 0 3 9 12 5 11 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -22. -31. -39. -48. -55. -60. -63. -64. -65. -67. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -10. -7. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 5. 8. 9. 7. 7. 7. 5. 1. -9. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -8. -11. -17. -23. -26. -28. -34. -38. -42. -46. -51. -62. -70. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 15.8 102.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 513.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -72.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.77 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 2.1% 0.8% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##