* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 115 112 111 109 111 114 119 115 111 105 103 94 81 82 82 V (KT) LAND 125 119 115 112 111 109 111 114 119 115 111 105 103 94 81 82 69 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 114 111 110 110 113 113 110 103 95 88 82 70 56 53 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 12 14 10 14 18 20 15 7 9 9 8 13 15 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 -4 0 0 -4 -3 -3 0 4 8 10 6 2 SHEAR DIR 81 91 91 92 88 93 74 75 77 111 152 181 224 249 235 267 277 SST (C) 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 30.1 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.3 29.8 29.4 28.7 29.2 29.3 29.1 29.5 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 170 171 166 168 167 166 168 162 157 150 155 155 152 156 164 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.0 -50.2 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -50.0 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.3 -49.0 -49.0 -49.1 -49.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 9 9 10 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 71 69 69 65 66 70 73 75 77 74 70 67 63 54 44 36 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 21 20 22 22 26 29 32 32 31 28 28 20 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 61 61 52 55 69 54 36 29 33 50 56 52 26 40 -5 -11 200 MB DIV 75 40 18 14 43 63 67 32 35 -7 19 18 32 25 16 -14 -19 700-850 TADV -5 -2 -3 -1 -3 -2 -3 -2 -5 -5 0 -3 1 4 -1 4 0 LAND (KM) 232 231 210 224 254 340 476 606 504 426 367 277 161 97 105 70 -11 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 18.7 20.0 21.4 22.6 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.1 102.7 103.3 104.2 105.1 106.9 108.8 110.6 111.8 112.7 113.2 113.4 113.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 51 39 38 39 27 34 25 20 21 12 5 2 1 8 7 11 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 1. -0. -6. -14. -22. -29. -35. -40. -44. -46. -48. -50. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -11. -10. -10. -8. -6. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 2. 6. 11. 10. 9. 5. 4. -4. -16. -15. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -13. -14. -16. -14. -11. -6. -10. -14. -20. -22. -31. -44. -43. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 15.5 102.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 411.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.44 -2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.87 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 44.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.41 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 12.5% 8.9% 7.4% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.7% 3.1% 2.5% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.3% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##