* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 124 118 115 112 110 108 114 112 109 109 107 103 99 95 93 90 V (KT) LAND 130 124 118 115 112 110 108 114 112 109 109 107 103 99 95 93 90 V (KT) LGEM 130 123 117 114 112 111 112 111 106 100 95 92 86 80 75 71 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 15 13 14 14 10 15 22 16 5 11 12 11 12 13 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 -1 -2 -4 3 3 -3 -1 -3 -4 1 4 4 5 5 SHEAR DIR 63 73 90 102 88 91 64 77 83 96 134 158 181 208 246 251 270 SST (C) 30.9 30.8 30.7 30.7 30.7 29.9 30.6 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.5 29.3 29.0 29.3 29.5 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 170 170 170 170 164 171 167 164 164 159 157 153 154 156 156 156 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -49.7 -49.1 -49.2 -49.0 -49.3 -49.4 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 8 9 7 7 7 8 8 8 5 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 71 69 67 65 64 68 72 75 75 73 73 69 68 58 54 49 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 24 21 21 20 23 24 28 27 27 29 28 26 24 21 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 48 54 65 58 50 75 57 41 19 22 23 48 39 35 26 10 7 200 MB DIV 64 45 17 5 32 58 40 47 27 45 17 30 2 31 25 0 -45 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 -2 -1 -1 -4 -2 -5 -4 -3 -1 0 0 1 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 234 221 213 212 213 300 409 542 582 521 400 314 209 150 120 84 59 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.7 16.1 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.9 20.4 21.9 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 102.1 102.8 103.5 104.2 106.0 108.0 109.7 111.6 112.6 112.8 113.0 113.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 8 7 6 2 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 51 51 37 38 40 26 26 27 16 12 11 3 0 4 5 8 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 145 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -17. -25. -33. -39. -44. -48. -50. -52. -53. -56. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -11. -9. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. -0. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. 3. 2. 1. 4. 3. -0. -3. -5. -8. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -15. -18. -20. -22. -16. -18. -21. -21. -23. -27. -31. -35. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 15.2 101.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.09 0.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 -1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 49.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.45 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.64 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.6% 8.3% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.3% 2.9% 2.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.1% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##