* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 135 131 125 123 120 120 125 125 120 114 115 111 109 102 101 98 V (KT) LAND 140 135 131 125 123 120 120 125 125 120 114 115 111 109 102 101 98 V (KT) LGEM 140 133 129 126 124 124 123 120 111 103 96 90 86 82 77 74 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 14 16 12 11 12 16 21 22 16 7 11 9 12 11 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -1 -3 -2 -2 -2 3 1 0 1 -2 -2 5 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 107 84 82 82 90 80 75 65 76 83 101 137 167 172 208 231 247 SST (C) 31.3 31.2 31.1 30.8 30.9 30.3 30.4 30.1 30.0 30.0 29.7 29.6 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.3 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 170 171 168 169 166 164 163 161 160 154 149 149 155 157 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.2 -49.9 -49.5 -49.5 -49.5 -49.6 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 9 10 8 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 71 71 70 70 69 67 73 76 78 77 78 71 73 69 60 58 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 19 20 22 25 29 30 30 29 31 29 30 26 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 46 47 51 60 61 53 66 60 31 24 29 34 60 56 52 29 3 200 MB DIV 56 45 62 33 1 47 55 78 25 41 23 31 36 45 13 6 9 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -1 0 -4 -5 -4 -6 -5 -1 -4 2 6 4 7 LAND (KM) 265 245 228 225 207 269 354 500 634 606 543 469 378 299 260 189 130 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.2 15.6 16.0 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.9 20.2 21.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.3 101.7 102.2 102.8 103.5 105.2 107.1 109.0 111.0 112.3 113.0 113.5 113.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 6 7 7 7 3 2 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 47 50 51 39 40 32 34 27 20 21 19 17 6 3 1 1 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 155 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -14. -25. -35. -43. -50. -54. -58. -59. -61. -63. -67. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -5. -5. -4. -4. -0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -5. -4. -2. 0. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -1. 1. 4. 9. 12. 12. 10. 12. 9. 9. 4. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -15. -17. -20. -20. -15. -15. -20. -26. -25. -29. -31. -38. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 14.8 101.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 427.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.47 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.9% 2.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##