* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 145 145 144 138 132 120 113 111 107 103 101 96 95 96 91 89 88 V (KT) LAND 145 145 144 138 132 120 113 111 107 103 101 96 95 96 91 89 88 V (KT) LGEM 145 143 139 136 132 126 122 117 108 98 92 86 85 84 81 78 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 8 15 13 13 16 19 27 23 16 13 13 11 14 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 1 0 1 -2 0 1 1 1 -4 0 4 1 0 4 SHEAR DIR 124 87 71 76 87 83 68 70 86 87 94 113 168 184 195 218 242 SST (C) 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.1 30.9 30.7 30.0 30.6 30.2 30.6 30.4 29.9 29.3 29.6 29.9 29.9 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 168 168 169 170 171 164 171 166 170 168 164 157 158 161 161 167 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -49.8 -50.5 -49.9 -50.2 -49.9 -50.1 -49.2 -49.0 -48.7 -49.0 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 9 10 8 9 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 72 71 72 71 72 67 71 75 76 77 73 71 64 67 60 59 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 23 22 22 20 23 26 27 27 27 27 26 29 26 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 57 46 47 52 60 45 65 50 45 24 23 15 34 38 28 28 -22 200 MB DIV 74 44 64 76 55 47 64 35 27 -1 11 11 30 26 35 16 29 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 0 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 290 279 268 259 259 241 310 375 475 539 467 370 239 126 67 42 15 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.8 15.0 15.3 15.6 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.4 18.1 19.1 20.6 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.4 101.6 101.8 102.2 102.7 104.1 105.8 107.5 109.0 110.5 111.9 112.6 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 3 4 5 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 4 3 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 50 52 44 43 28 31 25 24 21 11 1 4 12 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -29. -40. -49. -55. -60. -63. -64. -65. -67. -70. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 5. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -7. -13. -25. -32. -34. -38. -42. -44. -49. -50. -49. -54. -56. -57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 145. LAT, LON: 14.6 101.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 23.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.68 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 368.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 145.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.96 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.50 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -69.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.72 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 6.4% 2.6% 0.8% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##