* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/22/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 155 162 161 155 144 119 106 95 91 90 86 82 77 73 68 62 62 V (KT) LAND 155 162 161 155 144 119 106 95 91 90 86 82 77 73 68 62 62 V (KT) LGEM 155 159 156 149 141 128 121 116 111 104 96 89 85 79 71 66 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 4 9 15 16 13 13 20 17 22 14 9 6 12 24 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 0 -2 -2 2 -2 2 3 -4 -1 -1 1 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 64 123 110 86 71 94 75 92 89 91 91 118 124 179 210 227 226 SST (C) 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.1 30.8 30.3 30.1 30.3 30.4 30.4 30.1 29.7 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 168 169 169 170 168 165 168 169 168 165 161 154 156 157 159 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -49.9 -49.6 -49.3 -49.7 -49.5 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 10 9 9 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 71 71 73 70 70 66 71 74 74 73 71 65 61 54 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 22 24 23 16 20 21 23 24 23 24 23 20 16 9 3 850 MB ENV VOR 51 55 45 50 52 56 47 56 40 24 44 54 51 45 40 17 -27 200 MB DIV 89 59 63 82 90 30 61 29 35 -7 21 28 -11 3 33 2 4 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -6 -1 0 0 -1 -2 -5 -4 -4 -6 -1 2 0 LAND (KM) 294 286 279 259 243 235 262 328 434 542 505 431 343 257 165 116 82 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.1 16.6 16.9 17.1 17.7 18.6 19.8 21.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.5 101.6 101.6 102.0 102.3 103.4 105.1 106.7 108.3 110.0 111.5 112.5 112.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 3 5 5 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 45 45 47 52 50 40 32 32 24 29 23 17 7 2 2 8 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -24. -37. -49. -58. -65. -70. -74. -74. -75. -77. -81. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -13. -12. -10. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. -2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 10. 12. 11. 7. 1. -5. -12. -14. -12. -12. -14. -16. -15. -16. -17. -15. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -8. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 6. -0. -11. -36. -49. -60. -64. -65. -69. -73. -78. -82. -87. -93. -93. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 155. LAT, LON: 14.6 101.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/22/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 13.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.74 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 371.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.54 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 155.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.50 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -72.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.7% 4.7% 2.4% 1.6% 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.0% 1.9% 1.2% 0.9% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.5% 0.9% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/22/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##