* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/22/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 153 156 154 148 129 112 100 95 95 95 90 86 84 79 78 78 V (KT) LAND 140 153 156 154 148 129 112 100 95 95 95 90 86 84 79 78 78 V (KT) LGEM 140 151 153 150 146 136 127 122 116 112 107 103 100 96 92 89 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 4 1 2 6 15 14 17 16 16 19 20 12 11 14 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -3 -1 -1 -4 -5 -3 0 -3 0 -4 -3 1 1 3 SHEAR DIR 59 82 127 74 71 86 94 94 92 77 68 90 114 179 201 186 218 SST (C) 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.2 31.1 30.8 30.8 30.2 30.8 30.7 30.5 30.7 29.9 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 166 167 169 169 170 170 166 170 170 169 171 163 157 156 159 158 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.2 -50.7 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.8 -49.9 -49.1 -49.3 -49.0 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 9 7 10 8 10 7 9 8 9 8 8 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 70 70 72 72 72 71 69 70 73 74 76 71 71 69 68 63 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 22 23 22 21 22 24 25 27 28 28 28 27 27 24 850 MB ENV VOR 48 47 52 50 50 61 45 61 52 43 35 67 45 47 42 28 15 200 MB DIV 47 54 61 72 82 38 49 44 36 21 -4 -9 29 15 3 51 13 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -1 -2 1 3 -1 2 LAND (KM) 289 281 274 250 227 205 197 246 325 421 482 396 339 284 173 116 134 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.2 15.5 16.2 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.6 19.6 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 101.6 101.6 101.5 101.8 102.0 102.9 104.3 105.9 107.5 108.9 110.3 111.4 112.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 4 5 6 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 6 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 45 47 47 50 52 38 40 26 33 29 27 26 10 3 3 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -9. -18. -29. -40. -49. -55. -59. -61. -61. -62. -63. -66. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 14. 18. 16. 12. 4. -4. -13. -16. -14. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. -20. -17. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. -1. -2. -0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 13. 16. 14. 8. -11. -28. -40. -45. -45. -45. -50. -54. -56. -61. -62. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 14.7 101.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/22/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 50.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.86 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 380.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.50 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -75.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.80 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 72% is 11.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 72.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 90.7% 73.9% 70.5% 72.0% 74.3% 12.6% 3.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 61.3% 24.6% 23.5% 24.0% 24.8% 4.2% 1.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 13.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 37.1% 12.8% 12.2% 12.0% 12.4% 2.1% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/22/26 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING