* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/22/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 133 139 138 134 123 111 105 105 103 102 100 100 96 94 93 93 V (KT) LAND 120 133 139 138 134 123 111 105 105 103 102 100 100 96 94 93 93 V (KT) LGEM 120 135 141 142 141 134 126 122 118 112 108 105 101 98 95 91 87 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 4 3 4 14 10 12 16 15 18 17 16 11 16 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 -3 -4 0 -1 -3 -4 0 -1 -5 -3 -1 6 5 6 SHEAR DIR 49 65 48 109 72 83 118 75 93 84 71 72 111 158 186 219 223 SST (C) 31.1 31.1 31.0 31.1 31.1 30.9 30.9 30.3 30.5 30.8 30.8 30.9 30.1 29.6 29.6 29.9 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 167 167 168 170 170 167 169 171 170 170 165 160 160 163 159 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.1 -49.9 -49.4 -49.7 -49.4 -49.2 -48.8 -48.9 -48.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 8 9 9 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 70 71 70 70 67 70 73 74 72 70 61 61 62 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 22 21 20 22 20 23 26 26 27 29 32 31 32 31 29 850 MB ENV VOR 36 47 50 60 51 53 57 47 59 49 39 44 31 36 62 60 62 200 MB DIV 54 44 63 63 67 85 -13 29 37 41 4 2 26 5 12 46 34 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 -6 -1 0 -3 -3 -7 -6 -7 0 2 -2 0 LAND (KM) 307 298 289 273 257 235 177 211 260 369 471 407 346 268 118 54 39 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.9 15.1 15.8 16.8 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.7 19.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.0 101.8 101.6 101.7 101.8 102.6 103.8 105.2 106.7 108.3 109.9 111.1 112.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 1 2 4 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 8 9 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 44 43 47 50 43 42 27 32 30 31 28 15 6 12 14 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):115/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -19. -27. -34. -38. -41. -43. -42. -43. -43. -45. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 13. 17. 17. 14. 7. -0. -7. -11. -10. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -11. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 6. 10. 10. 11. 13. 15. 13. 12. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 13. 19. 18. 14. 3. -9. -15. -15. -16. -18. -20. -20. -24. -26. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 14.7 102.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/22/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.15 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 50.0 -22.0 to 44.0 1.00 15.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.82 12.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 357.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.50 -6.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.16 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 7.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.47 4.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -73.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.78 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 82% is 13.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 82.1% 50.7% 44.9% 44.2% 33.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 80.8% 69.7% 65.5% 64.5% 69.8% 22.8% 10.6% 1.6% Bayesian: 40.6% 1.6% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 67.9% 40.7% 36.8% 36.2% 34.4% 7.6% 3.6% 0.5% DTOPS: 69.0% 20.0% 11.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 68.4% 30.3% 23.9% 19.1% 17.2% 3.8% 1.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/22/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##