* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/22/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 102 111 118 122 125 118 105 96 96 93 86 87 84 83 84 79 V (KT) LAND 90 102 111 118 122 125 118 105 96 96 93 86 87 84 71 51 52 V (KT) LGEM 90 105 116 124 130 132 129 124 121 118 111 106 104 100 86 58 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 4 3 7 16 15 17 19 14 14 9 9 12 25 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -5 -5 -4 1 -3 -2 -3 -3 2 -6 -2 0 10 3 1 SHEAR DIR 40 56 81 95 130 78 93 90 91 87 76 78 88 172 213 242 246 SST (C) 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.9 30.6 30.5 31.1 30.8 31.4 30.5 29.6 30.8 31.4 31.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 167 167 168 169 170 170 170 170 170 171 170 161 171 171 170 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 -50.7 -49.9 -50.3 -49.7 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 -49.2 -49.5 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 9 10 7 10 8 10 6 8 7 9 6 9 5 10 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 70 70 72 70 66 69 72 74 73 68 66 60 56 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 21 22 23 23 22 20 21 26 28 27 31 31 31 34 31 850 MB ENV VOR 21 36 48 57 65 54 78 56 55 44 54 58 36 37 44 73 -9 200 MB DIV 58 50 33 67 55 96 49 -15 26 38 34 23 -17 -7 31 28 -1 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -4 -8 -7 -10 0 5 -1 5 LAND (KM) 292 293 297 274 252 222 179 153 207 307 402 340 242 156 -30 0 28 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.0 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.8 16.6 17.5 17.9 18.4 18.9 19.9 21.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 102.5 102.3 102.0 102.0 101.9 102.4 103.3 104.6 106.2 107.8 109.2 110.5 111.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 1 2 3 5 7 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 46 49 48 52 51 45 39 33 32 32 36 25 15 9 7 15 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):104/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -9. -14. -17. -20. -20. -22. -20. -19. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 8. 12. 12. 11. 7. 4. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 4. 11. 13. 11. 14. 13. 12. 13. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 14. 7. 0. -4. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 21. 28. 32. 35. 28. 15. 6. 6. 3. -4. -3. -6. -7. -6. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 15.1 102.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/22/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.40 11.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 35.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.86 21.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.78 18.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 243.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.63 -12.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 7.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.56 10.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 13.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.51 7.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 4.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -75.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.80 -0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 86% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 6.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 79% is 13.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 70% is 16.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 68% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 85.8% 81.7% 80.4% 79.4% 70.3% 68.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 64.3% 70.4% 59.1% 50.9% 58.8% 44.9% 21.0% 4.3% Bayesian: 45.6% 71.5% 63.5% 53.8% 25.4% 10.8% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 65.2% 74.5% 67.7% 61.4% 51.5% 41.4% 7.0% 1.4% DTOPS: 89.0% 96.0% 98.0% 98.0% 81.0% 45.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 77.1% 85.2% 82.8% 79.7% 66.2% 43.2% 4.0% 0.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/22/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##