* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 82 92 101 109 118 120 111 103 101 98 92 91 90 88 89 87 V (KT) LAND 70 82 92 101 109 118 120 111 103 101 98 92 91 90 75 52 50 V (KT) LGEM 70 84 98 109 118 131 136 132 127 124 119 111 108 109 95 62 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 10 10 8 5 14 13 13 20 17 15 10 7 9 20 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -4 -4 -4 0 -3 -3 -6 -3 -4 -6 0 5 6 1 SHEAR DIR 37 54 57 84 94 83 90 85 71 79 84 70 84 128 222 217 237 SST (C) 30.8 31.0 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.8 30.9 30.4 30.9 31.0 31.0 31.3 30.5 30.8 31.1 31.3 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 167 167 169 169 170 168 170 170 170 171 170 171 170 169 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -49.3 -49.5 -49.0 -49.1 -49.0 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 9 8 9 8 9 9 10 8 8 8 9 8 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 70 69 69 71 71 72 71 68 66 70 72 72 69 68 62 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 16 18 19 21 23 25 25 25 28 32 32 35 38 37 40 38 850 MB ENV VOR 7 22 38 55 66 63 63 76 65 68 67 71 57 57 52 65 37 200 MB DIV 51 57 44 57 64 61 90 10 45 31 24 5 14 8 12 25 26 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 1 0 -2 -1 -3 -2 -5 -7 -10 -4 -4 0 1 -3 LAND (KM) 314 306 301 284 267 243 209 154 172 236 346 383 236 129 -21 -31 38 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.1 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.5 16.2 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.6 19.5 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.0 102.7 102.3 102.1 102.0 102.3 103.0 104.0 105.4 106.9 108.4 109.7 110.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 2 1 4 6 7 8 7 7 8 9 10 9 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 46 44 48 51 52 49 39 42 27 33 33 27 14 16 7 5 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 73.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 13. 15. 19. 23. 21. 23. 24. 21. 21. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 22. 20. 10. 1. -5. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 12. 22. 31. 39. 49. 50. 41. 33. 31. 28. 22. 21. 20. 18. 19. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 15.2 103.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.57 17.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 21.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 18.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 177.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -15.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 8.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 16.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 13.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 54.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.50 8.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 4.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 -0.9 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 92% is 14.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 93% is 7.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 92% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 91% is 16.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 87% is 20.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 93% is 13.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 63% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 91.8% 93.2% 92.2% 91.2% 87.5% 93.1% 63.4% 20.5% Logistic: 61.9% 69.9% 57.7% 46.4% 52.6% 49.0% 40.4% 15.3% Bayesian: 47.3% 56.4% 49.6% 39.2% 40.2% 39.3% 10.4% 0.0% Consensus: 67.0% 73.2% 66.5% 58.9% 60.1% 60.5% 38.1% 11.9% DTOPS: 90.0% 99.0% 100.0% 100.0% 97.0% 96.0% 66.0% 1.0% SDCON: 78.5% 86.1% 83.2% 79.4% 78.5% 78.2% 52.0% 6.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##