* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 59 68 77 86 99 104 99 97 93 90 87 87 84 84 84 88 V (KT) LAND 50 59 68 77 86 99 104 99 97 93 90 87 87 84 84 84 77 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 68 78 88 107 119 124 125 122 117 113 111 113 113 114 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 9 9 6 9 18 15 15 17 16 12 15 16 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -5 -4 -2 -5 -6 -2 -6 -4 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 44 45 60 70 84 125 68 88 77 86 89 89 70 84 116 133 188 SST (C) 30.7 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.0 30.9 31.0 30.5 30.7 31.1 31.0 31.5 31.3 30.9 30.2 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 169 167 168 169 170 169 170 169 170 170 170 169 165 170 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -51.0 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -50.0 -49.5 -49.6 -49.2 -49.0 -48.5 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 8 10 7 10 8 11 7 10 7 9 7 10 6 700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 69 71 71 71 69 68 69 72 72 74 75 74 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 17 18 19 21 24 23 23 27 28 31 32 35 37 39 39 40 850 MB ENV VOR -5 5 26 43 53 74 74 94 77 87 67 77 66 57 52 86 86 200 MB DIV 35 44 55 42 50 57 97 49 11 28 32 34 30 17 -13 2 19 700-850 TADV -3 0 0 0 2 2 -2 -4 -5 -2 -4 -7 -12 -11 -4 -4 0 LAND (KM) 304 295 286 281 272 234 199 149 137 173 239 313 292 187 128 73 -4 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.2 15.6 16.3 17.0 18.0 18.6 18.8 19.4 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.6 103.4 103.1 102.7 102.3 102.3 103.0 103.6 105.1 106.4 107.3 108.5 110.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 3 4 2 4 5 7 7 6 5 8 7 6 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 44 46 45 50 49 38 43 31 36 35 26 21 11 20 16 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 73.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 17. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. 22. 21. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 23. 21. 10. 1. -6. -10. -13. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 27. 36. 49. 54. 49. 47. 43. 40. 37. 37. 34. 34. 34. 38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.5 103.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 21.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 14.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 18.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -15.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 14.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 11.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 51.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.47 7.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 4.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 -0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 50% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 84% is 6.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 82% is 13.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 65% is 15.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 100% is 14.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 84% is 14.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 49.8% 84.3% 82.7% 81.6% 64.9% 100.0% 83.6% 47.1% Logistic: 48.1% 72.4% 56.5% 44.3% 44.0% 52.7% 57.9% 20.1% Bayesian: 30.0% 79.8% 61.6% 47.8% 65.3% 79.5% 76.0% 6.8% Consensus: 42.6% 78.8% 66.9% 57.9% 58.1% 77.4% 72.5% 24.7% DTOPS: 62.0% 94.0% 94.0% 95.0% 68.0% 90.0% 99.0% 60.0% SDCON: 52.3% 86.4% 80.4% 76.4% 63.0% 83.7% 85.7% 42.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##