* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 48 57 67 76 93 101 102 92 96 93 90 87 87 85 90 93 V (KT) LAND 40 48 57 67 76 93 101 102 92 96 93 90 87 87 85 90 93 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 54 62 72 94 114 125 127 128 125 117 113 113 117 121 122 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 5 6 7 6 6 10 13 11 15 9 6 6 5 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -4 -2 -1 -4 -4 -2 -2 -4 -9 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 44 84 62 83 69 105 72 63 66 57 74 91 37 347 14 294 142 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.7 30.8 30.9 31.1 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.5 30.9 30.9 31.4 30.9 30.5 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 168 169 168 167 168 169 170 169 171 171 170 169 168 161 162 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -49.8 -49.5 -49.4 -49.2 -49.0 -48.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 7 8 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 68 69 70 70 69 67 67 71 73 75 76 79 77 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 19 24 26 29 26 32 34 34 34 38 37 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -1 13 34 47 72 79 84 92 78 78 74 91 85 71 56 72 200 MB DIV 42 35 41 63 63 72 96 93 20 20 23 37 56 60 43 12 45 700-850 TADV -1 -2 0 2 1 0 -3 -1 -4 -3 -8 -5 -12 -13 -7 -5 -7 LAND (KM) 320 291 262 264 255 222 202 175 119 118 178 303 304 251 195 172 121 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.7 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.6 16.1 16.6 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.4 20.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 103.7 103.3 102.9 102.5 102.1 102.5 103.2 103.9 105.1 106.6 108.4 110.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 1 3 4 6 7 9 9 8 4 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 43 39 40 43 44 49 41 41 44 32 36 27 16 12 16 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 79.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 15. 17. 20. 22. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 27. 28. 27. 24. 26. 23. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 22. 11. 1. -6. -11. -15. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 27. 36. 53. 61. 62. 52. 56. 53. 50. 47. 47. 45. 50. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.5 104.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 18.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.78 14.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 127.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.76 -12.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.40 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 7.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 9.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.44 5.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.70 -0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 72% is 5.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 61% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 80% is 12.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 82% is 13.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.1% 71.5% 61.3% 54.2% 39.5% 80.3% 82.1% 41.1% Logistic: 39.7% 72.0% 56.8% 43.2% 33.2% 59.3% 56.8% 23.2% Bayesian: 7.1% 77.1% 58.8% 40.3% 16.5% 58.4% 50.9% 18.6% Consensus: 25.3% 73.6% 58.9% 45.9% 29.7% 66.0% 63.3% 27.6% DTOPS: 45.0% 87.0% 87.0% 86.0% 50.0% 90.0% 100.0% 96.0% SDCON: 35.1% 80.3% 72.9% 65.9% 39.8% 78.0% 81.6% 61.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##