* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * POLO EP172026 09/21/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 55 63 79 89 94 95 94 94 92 89 90 89 89 94 V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 55 63 79 89 94 95 94 94 92 89 90 89 89 94 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 43 48 54 70 88 104 115 120 122 115 109 107 107 112 119 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 4 5 5 8 11 4 8 14 8 12 12 10 13 10 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -5 -2 -3 -4 0 -5 -4 -9 -7 SHEAR DIR 230 46 81 80 75 81 71 25 58 61 52 65 40 37 45 51 72 SST (C) 30.5 30.5 30.5 30.6 30.7 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.1 30.8 30.6 30.8 30.8 31.0 31.3 30.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 169 168 168 169 168 167 167 169 170 170 170 170 170 169 169 169 159 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -50.7 -50.9 -50.4 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -49.7 -49.8 -49.4 -49.4 -48.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 11 8 10 7 10 8 11 7 10 7 10 7 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 68 68 70 70 71 71 68 68 71 70 75 75 77 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 13 14 16 17 21 23 26 28 30 33 34 34 37 39 40 42 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -4 -1 13 38 59 79 78 99 80 89 76 86 67 61 53 60 200 MB DIV 46 45 41 68 81 66 54 92 78 10 0 0 31 29 36 15 21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 0 2 3 1 -3 -1 0 0 -3 -7 -9 -11 -4 -5 LAND (KM) 392 355 319 303 290 268 251 207 145 107 100 170 262 313 249 231 257 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.3 16.1 17.0 17.9 18.6 19.2 19.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.8 104.2 103.7 103.3 102.9 102.4 102.1 102.6 103.5 104.4 105.5 106.8 108.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 4 4 3 2 2 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 43 48 39 42 44 47 50 41 44 38 37 36 27 20 12 12 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 7 CX,CY: 5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 15. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 26. 26. 26. 24. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 9. 1. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 20. 28. 44. 54. 59. 60. 59. 59. 57. 54. 55. 54. 54. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 104.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172026 POLO 09/21/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 15.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.83 12.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 101.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -10.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 5.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 48.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.45 4.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -48.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.44 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 64% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 75% is 12.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.4% 54.7% 45.0% 36.6% 26.7% 64.5% 74.7% 41.1% Logistic: 9.9% 38.5% 23.8% 12.3% 9.3% 29.1% 51.1% 25.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 33.5% 16.5% 6.2% 2.1% 21.9% 35.7% 25.5% Consensus: 8.4% 42.2% 28.4% 18.3% 12.7% 38.5% 53.8% 30.9% DTOPS: 20.0% 53.0% 38.0% 29.0% 11.0% 64.0% 94.0% 99.0% SDCON: 14.2% 47.6% 33.2% 23.6% 11.8% 51.2% 73.9% 64.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172026 POLO 09/21/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##