* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/20/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 37 44 54 67 77 89 89 92 93 92 91 92 93 97 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 37 44 54 67 77 89 89 92 93 92 91 92 93 97 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 44 55 69 83 94 102 103 99 99 103 109 116 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 2 3 7 5 1 9 13 8 14 13 13 6 7 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -3 -1 -1 0 -2 0 -2 -1 1 1 -1 -3 -6 -5 -8 SHEAR DIR 209 210 206 97 87 60 117 77 73 84 64 55 56 55 68 45 47 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.5 30.7 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.0 31.1 30.5 30.5 30.9 30.9 31.3 31.1 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 170 168 167 168 169 169 167 168 169 170 169 169 170 171 170 168 166 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -49.4 -49.5 -49.4 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 8 8 9 8 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 72 74 73 71 71 72 73 74 70 69 71 70 73 72 77 78 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 10 12 13 19 21 26 26 29 30 30 31 33 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR -9 2 -3 -1 12 38 58 62 72 85 65 66 57 64 65 70 68 200 MB DIV 46 59 61 66 82 66 80 91 100 41 45 9 49 56 33 27 43 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 2 0 0 2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -6 -9 -13 -9 -11 -5 LAND (KM) 466 431 396 366 338 306 299 269 241 216 153 158 242 328 326 249 218 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 2 5 7 8 6 7 8 7 4 1 HEAT CONTENT 40 46 40 38 44 47 41 46 49 43 32 31 35 32 21 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 7 CX,CY: 4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 13. 15. 19. 22. 26. 29. 32. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 16. 25. 25. 28. 27. 25. 23. 23. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 4. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 14. 24. 37. 47. 59. 59. 62. 63. 62. 61. 62. 63. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 105.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/20/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 11.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.90 9.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -7.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 3.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 46.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.43 2.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 9.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.0% 35.4% 30.7% 22.8% 0.0% 40.0% 64.9% 43.0% Logistic: 4.1% 29.7% 17.2% 7.8% 4.7% 21.6% 28.8% 18.2% Bayesian: 0.4% 8.4% 4.0% 0.8% 0.9% 2.2% 5.5% 14.2% Consensus: 5.5% 24.5% 17.3% 10.5% 1.9% 21.2% 33.1% 25.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 17.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 19.0% 60.0% 75.0% SDCON: 3.2% 20.7% 12.1% 5.7% 1.4% 20.1% 46.5% 50.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/20/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##