* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/20/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 40 50 62 71 84 87 90 90 91 90 93 93 98 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 40 50 62 71 84 87 90 90 91 90 93 93 98 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 44 54 66 79 91 97 98 97 97 98 104 108 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 5 4 7 13 6 9 12 9 17 17 17 18 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -7 -4 -3 -1 -4 -3 -1 1 4 0 -1 0 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 209 194 186 185 133 97 95 106 37 58 35 33 44 45 53 77 67 SST (C) 30.0 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.8 30.9 30.6 30.7 30.3 30.7 30.9 30.9 30.8 31.1 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 164 167 167 167 168 168 167 168 169 169 166 170 170 168 169 170 170 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -49.8 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 10 7 10 7 10 8 10 7 11 8 10 7 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 71 72 71 73 72 71 68 68 66 66 65 68 66 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 9 10 12 16 18 23 25 27 28 30 31 34 35 37 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -9 5 5 1 28 49 76 88 92 69 75 67 86 71 66 76 200 MB DIV 32 42 45 60 52 76 51 59 82 31 3 33 4 3 -3 1 17 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 0 -4 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 -2 -6 -6 LAND (KM) 552 503 454 412 374 352 332 298 280 217 167 153 269 317 333 306 300 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 6 5 5 2 3 6 6 6 7 6 4 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 31 38 39 35 47 39 43 44 39 39 27 35 33 30 27 20 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 4. 9. 13. 18. 21. 24. 27. 30. 32. 35. 37. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 21. 23. 25. 24. 24. 23. 24. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 10. 20. 32. 41. 54. 57. 60. 60. 61. 60. 63. 63. 68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 105.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/20/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 11.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.84 8.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -7.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.39 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.44 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 43.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.40 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 65% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 34.6% 28.5% 21.5% 0.0% 41.8% 64.6% 43.8% Logistic: 2.5% 19.4% 10.0% 4.6% 4.3% 11.0% 22.4% 21.6% Bayesian: 0.4% 5.9% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 2.5% 16.4% 14.9% Consensus: 4.9% 20.0% 13.2% 8.8% 1.5% 18.4% 34.5% 26.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 7.0% 24.0% SDCON: 2.4% 12.0% 7.6% 4.9% 0.7% 10.2% 20.7% 25.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/20/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##