* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 42 53 63 73 78 82 81 85 86 90 90 94 100 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 42 53 63 73 78 82 81 85 86 90 90 94 100 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 42 49 58 69 80 88 93 97 99 102 106 114 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 9 3 1 8 7 4 10 10 14 15 12 15 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -7 -7 0 1 0 -3 0 -3 3 0 0 1 -3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 206 200 204 199 187 91 80 87 305 1 35 23 48 54 43 57 85 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.8 31.2 31.3 31.0 30.3 31.1 31.1 31.0 30.8 30.8 POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 166 168 170 169 168 168 169 170 167 170 169 169 170 170 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.2 -51.2 -51.1 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.3 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 9 8 10 9 9 8 9 8 10 9 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 69 70 69 70 72 69 72 71 72 72 72 67 68 66 68 69 71 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 12 13 16 18 22 22 25 26 30 31 35 38 850 MB ENV VOR -11 -6 2 14 19 23 46 61 71 74 81 61 74 70 77 71 86 200 MB DIV 42 43 61 76 88 55 86 54 63 26 17 47 52 12 9 16 33 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 0 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 607 537 469 421 375 315 307 272 219 195 192 201 225 288 341 384 327 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.1 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.4 15.0 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.4 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 105.8 105.8 105.4 104.9 103.6 102.6 101.9 102.2 102.9 103.9 105.2 106.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 5 5 6 6 4 2 4 5 6 8 7 5 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 40 37 35 38 41 46 47 46 34 26 36 32 34 26 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 11 CX,CY: 1/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 471 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 30.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 10. 15. 18. 19. 20. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 20. 20. 22. 21. 24. 22. 23. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 23. 33. 43. 48. 52. 51. 55. 56. 60. 60. 64. 70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.4 105.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 10.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.74 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -6.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 2.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 64% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 45% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 35.5% 26.9% 19.6% 0.0% 38.3% 63.8% 44.7% Logistic: 1.3% 11.5% 5.3% 2.4% 1.7% 10.4% 40.8% 36.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 11.1% 3.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.5% 3.9% 15.3% Consensus: 4.3% 19.4% 11.8% 7.6% 0.7% 16.8% 36.2% 32.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.6% 13.2% 7.9% 4.3% 0.8% 9.4% 21.1% 17.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##