* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/20/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 45 59 71 77 79 83 88 89 88 91 98 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 29 34 45 59 71 77 79 83 88 89 88 91 98 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 27 30 35 43 52 61 71 80 85 90 97 105 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 15 13 5 7 10 7 6 9 8 13 16 15 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -4 -8 -6 -2 -2 -5 -4 0 0 2 1 -1 -3 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 181 204 202 191 194 171 124 81 98 360 25 28 42 37 39 44 60 SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.6 30.8 31.0 30.4 30.9 31.1 31.1 30.9 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 164 165 167 169 168 168 169 170 168 170 169 170 170 169 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -52.2 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 -50.2 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 8 8 8 10 8 10 7 10 8 10 7 11 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 70 69 71 73 72 73 72 72 68 68 67 68 68 72 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 9 10 11 13 16 19 22 23 25 28 29 29 31 35 850 MB ENV VOR -2 -1 3 6 26 17 43 52 75 82 90 60 61 58 77 71 77 200 MB DIV 42 31 39 64 87 63 85 56 36 45 23 -31 40 12 7 20 27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 -3 -5 0 -1 -6 -4 -2 -5 LAND (KM) 711 629 554 498 442 360 320 323 304 241 160 162 222 275 298 352 347 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 5 4 5 5 2 3 4 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 29 35 42 45 37 36 43 44 40 36 27 35 33 30 22 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 17. 22. 24. 26. 30. 34. 36. 39. 41. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 15. 18. 20. 20. 21. 21. 19. 19. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 20. 34. 46. 52. 54. 58. 63. 64. 63. 66. 73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.6 106.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/20/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.92 7.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 63.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -5.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.43 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 1.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -35.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.26 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.5% 17.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.1% 35.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 4.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.4% 2.3% 17.6% 27.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 1.1% 4.8% Consensus: 0.2% 8.7% 6.2% 0.2% 0.1% 8.2% 18.2% 10.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 6.0% SDCON: 0.1% 5.3% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 4.6% 10.1% 8.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/20/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##