* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 26 28 33 43 56 65 68 74 77 82 80 82 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 28 33 43 56 65 68 74 58 41 41 42 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 28 29 32 36 42 50 59 53 39 44 48 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 11 12 10 1 5 6 7 14 8 6 15 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -7 -6 1 2 -3 -1 -7 5 3 -1 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 173 177 207 207 197 189 130 83 105 307 338 354 326 338 321 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.9 29.9 30.0 30.3 30.6 30.6 30.7 31.4 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.7 31.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 163 163 163 166 170 169 168 170 171 170 170 170 171 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.0 -50.9 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 10 9 11 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 70 72 71 72 71 74 74 73 69 68 69 68 68 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 8 9 10 13 15 16 18 23 26 29 29 31 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -2 -7 -2 3 19 21 50 62 75 70 66 49 73 25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 68 41 35 48 70 80 60 73 55 5 27 -13 12 18 -3 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -4 -5 -5 -2 -4 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 843 748 656 582 514 404 329 297 280 185 54 -34 -37 67 67 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 6 5 6 4 3 7 8 6 6 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 25 27 30 37 43 37 40 45 44 39 3 3 18 44 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 9 CX,CY: 0/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 23. 25. 26. 28. 31. 31. 32. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. 0. 1. 4. 8. 10. 13. 19. 21. 23. 20. 21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 18. 31. 40. 43. 49. 52. 57. 55. 57. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 11.2 106.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -9.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.5% 41.2% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 4.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 1.8% 8.1% 19.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 5.1% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% Consensus: 0.3% 10.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 8.4% 16.4% 8.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 8.0% SDCON: 0.1% 6.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 4.7% 9.2% 8.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##