* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/19/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 44 59 70 79 83 85 89 91 94 96 102 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 29 35 44 59 70 79 83 85 89 91 94 96 102 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 28 29 30 33 38 45 53 62 70 78 86 89 92 98 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 10 9 7 8 6 10 17 13 12 10 17 17 19 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 0 0 0 -6 -4 1 0 -4 -4 -3 -5 -3 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 167 165 170 185 192 176 126 73 71 69 28 18 22 32 44 57 60 SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.3 30.3 29.8 29.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 162 163 164 166 167 162 161 161 163 167 168 163 163 160 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -51.8 -51.1 -51.4 -50.7 -51.1 -50.0 -50.3 -49.8 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 9 7 8 7 8 7 8 6 8 8 700-500 MB RH 72 73 73 71 73 74 76 75 77 77 77 76 76 78 82 80 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 11 13 17 20 23 25 26 30 31 33 33 39 850 MB ENV VOR 7 8 0 -2 0 8 18 47 37 55 40 48 17 34 44 74 75 200 MB DIV 80 81 50 50 59 71 76 100 75 86 75 34 16 16 45 56 65 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 -1 0 3 2 0 0 -2 -4 -1 -3 -8 -13 -15 LAND (KM) 933 857 782 705 642 520 458 463 503 508 479 472 474 490 562 666 762 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 11.1 11.9 12.7 13.4 14.5 14.7 14.3 13.6 13.2 13.4 13.8 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.1 106.3 106.4 106.5 106.2 105.4 104.5 103.7 103.1 102.9 103.5 104.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 6 5 4 5 5 2 2 4 6 9 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 12 16 21 25 28 34 36 33 26 20 20 28 32 40 29 24 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 10 CX,CY: 0/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 7. 13. 20. 26. 30. 33. 36. 41. 44. 47. 50. 54. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 21. 21. 23. 22. 22. 20. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 10. 20. 34. 45. 54. 58. 60. 64. 66. 69. 71. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 10.3 105.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/19/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.90 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -3.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 22.5% 40.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 8.2% 2.9% 1.3% 0.2% 3.5% 8.3% 21.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 3.3% Consensus: 0.3% 11.0% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 8.7% 16.4% 8.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 6.5% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 4.3% 8.2% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/19/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##