* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/19/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 25 27 35 46 60 73 81 88 92 98 101 102 103 107 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 25 27 35 46 60 73 81 88 92 98 101 102 103 107 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 21 21 23 25 30 36 44 52 62 75 87 92 94 103 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 11 10 8 6 6 9 11 14 9 9 8 9 15 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 2 1 -3 -2 -1 3 0 -3 -4 0 1 1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 174 167 163 158 152 146 130 79 54 51 36 14 37 41 54 55 63 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 30.1 30.2 29.8 29.9 29.8 30.2 30.4 30.7 30.0 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 157 159 161 160 164 165 161 161 159 164 168 171 166 166 164 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 -51.3 -51.1 -50.8 -50.5 -50.1 -49.9 -49.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 73 70 71 74 73 75 75 76 76 78 77 80 76 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 11 13 16 18 22 26 27 32 34 36 37 39 850 MB ENV VOR 20 10 10 2 -2 -5 13 24 29 46 52 52 33 22 49 61 121 200 MB DIV 93 95 87 93 74 78 87 83 58 97 95 86 34 61 69 49 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -10 -15 -19 LAND (KM) 1025 965 904 846 780 637 523 489 509 504 482 416 378 331 369 472 518 LAT (DEG N) 9.4 10.1 10.8 11.4 12.1 13.5 14.3 14.2 13.6 13.1 13.1 13.8 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.9 106.2 106.5 106.6 106.7 106.6 105.9 104.9 103.8 102.8 102.3 102.4 103.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 4 2 4 7 9 12 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 11 16 22 28 34 31 24 18 19 27 35 38 37 21 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 8 CX,CY: -1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 29. 34. 37. 41. 45. 48. 51. 55. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 22. 25. 25. 24. 23. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 7. 15. 26. 40. 53. 61. 68. 72. 78. 81. 82. 83. 87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 9.4 105.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/19/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.91 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 47.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.60 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.29 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 40.0% 17.6% 10.8% 2.1% 19.2% 32.0% 51.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.8% 1.2% 0.4% 0.0% 2.3% 3.9% 3.7% Consensus: 1.5% 14.3% 6.2% 3.8% 0.7% 7.2% 12.0% 18.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.7% 8.1% 3.6% 1.9% 0.3% 3.6% 6.5% 9.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/19/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##