* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/19/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 23 26 30 38 51 66 84 89 97 103 103 98 102 100 104 V (KT) LAND 20 22 23 26 30 38 51 66 84 89 97 103 103 98 102 100 104 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 27 32 40 50 61 72 83 91 97 102 108 112 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 4 4 7 7 7 6 11 16 12 8 10 9 6 9 12 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 2 0 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 1 -1 -3 0 3 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 40 167 137 121 107 95 129 60 54 27 356 353 46 71 63 55 81 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.0 30.4 31.2 30.9 31.4 31.0 31.3 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 154 156 156 158 162 160 162 164 163 167 170 171 173 173 174 165 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -51.4 -52.0 -51.2 -51.7 -50.7 -50.9 -50.2 -50.1 -49.2 -49.2 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 8 6 9 8 11 6 7 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 72 74 73 75 78 78 76 77 78 75 69 68 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 12 11 13 16 22 23 27 32 33 30 34 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 14 14 7 0 4 8 40 39 63 60 76 74 81 57 119 200 MB DIV 86 87 95 102 109 90 90 55 114 67 67 66 57 33 45 17 47 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0 2 2 2 1 1 -1 -5 -9 -20 LAND (KM) 1112 1084 1046 987 914 739 605 518 451 404 329 194 99 38 95 284 316 LAT (DEG N) 8.4 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.7 12.2 13.2 13.5 13.4 13.3 13.8 15.1 16.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.7 106.1 106.4 106.5 106.5 106.0 105.2 103.8 102.3 101.0 100.3 100.4 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 8 10 14 15 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 8 8 7 10 11 27 26 23 21 24 31 42 48 25 46 18 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 17. 25. 32. 36. 40. 42. 46. 47. 49. 51. 56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 3. 8. 17. 18. 23. 28. 26. 20. 23. 20. 19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 10. 18. 31. 46. 64. 69. 77. 83. 83. 79. 82. 80. 84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.4 105.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/19/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.89 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.66 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 39.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.86 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 95.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.63 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -31.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.22 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 32.7% 15.2% 8.1% 1.1% 12.3% 28.6% 42.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 2.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 2.5% Consensus: 1.7% 11.7% 5.5% 2.8% 0.4% 4.1% 9.6% 14.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% 27.0% SDCON: 0.8% 8.8% 3.7% 1.4% 0.2% 2.5% 6.3% 20.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/19/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##