* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/18/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 49 61 75 82 90 93 97 99 102 103 104 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 25 28 37 49 61 75 82 90 93 97 99 102 103 104 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 21 22 23 27 33 40 50 61 71 80 91 105 115 116 114 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 3 5 8 10 6 6 10 11 11 11 10 7 8 18 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -5 -4 -2 -1 5 2 -3 -3 -2 2 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 15 53 89 99 84 72 36 36 30 25 41 7 11 20 18 20 35 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.9 30.8 31.0 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 153 155 158 161 159 160 160 159 161 170 171 172 173 173 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -50.3 -49.8 -49.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 69 70 70 72 73 75 76 76 79 80 78 76 75 74 75 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 16 18 22 25 28 31 35 35 36 850 MB ENV VOR 28 24 23 15 11 -11 -18 -10 14 29 39 43 49 52 30 59 64 200 MB DIV 61 92 88 80 95 116 104 85 83 90 87 82 71 45 35 46 25 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 -1 0 -8 -13 LAND (KM) 1258 1266 1258 1214 1166 988 805 649 563 522 472 414 330 272 237 270 488 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 7.2 7.5 8.0 8.5 10.1 11.6 12.7 12.9 12.7 12.8 13.2 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.8 106.4 106.8 107.0 107.1 106.8 106.1 105.0 103.6 102.3 101.4 101.0 101.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 8 8 7 7 6 4 3 6 8 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 20 19 13 10 10 20 26 20 16 16 22 36 43 34 34 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 10. 20. 28. 35. 39. 43. 46. 49. 51. 53. 56. 60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 13. 18. 19. 21. 23. 24. 22. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 17. 29. 41. 55. 62. 70. 73. 77. 79. 82. 83. 84. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.0 105.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/18/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.57 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -2.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 10.7% 3.5% 1.5% 0.3% 1.4% 2.7% 16.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.3% 3.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.9% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 3.0% SDCON: 0.1% 2.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.9% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/18/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##