* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP992026 09/18/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 29 33 44 57 68 75 85 89 96 101 102 101 98 101 V (KT) LAND 20 23 26 29 33 44 57 68 75 85 89 96 101 102 101 98 101 V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 24 29 35 45 57 70 85 100 115 126 129 130 131 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 6 4 9 8 5 8 11 14 4 5 7 8 14 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -5 -2 -3 -4 -2 -4 -2 -1 -2 -2 -4 1 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 343 4 359 357 11 60 70 12 2 46 18 2 4 67 58 47 49 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.4 31.2 30.8 31.2 31.0 31.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 151 152 153 156 157 162 159 160 161 167 169 170 171 172 173 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -50.5 -50.8 -49.9 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 6 9 7 11 7 700-500 MB RH 69 64 65 66 68 72 74 76 78 81 80 78 78 78 74 73 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 13 17 20 24 28 31 33 33 36 850 MB ENV VOR 23 30 30 28 22 8 -25 -18 1 28 46 60 54 69 56 51 61 200 MB DIV 59 60 84 103 97 105 74 86 73 109 70 93 84 69 38 -19 27 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 1 -1 1 0 1 2 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 1221 1341 1382 1381 1351 1207 1012 801 652 558 472 381 282 178 114 88 204 LAT (DEG N) 7.0 6.5 6.5 6.7 7.1 8.5 10.2 11.8 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.0 106.5 107.3 107.8 108.1 108.1 107.6 106.5 105.1 103.5 102.1 101.2 101.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 7 5 5 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 6 7 10 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 23 25 25 15 16 20 25 19 19 30 44 48 39 40 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 12. 22. 32. 38. 43. 47. 50. 52. 54. 55. 56. 59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 13. 18. 21. 22. 22. 20. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 24. 37. 48. 55. 65. 69. 76. 81. 82. 81. 78. 81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 7.0 105.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP992026 INVEST 09/18/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 133.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.87 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 66.6% 35.0% 24.5% 14.9% 10.3% 10.5% 47.5% Bayesian: 1.3% 9.8% 5.5% 2.3% 0.1% 2.7% 9.6% 2.1% Consensus: 3.5% 25.5% 13.5% 8.9% 5.0% 4.3% 6.7% 16.5% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP992026 INVEST 09/18/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##