* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/02/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 75 80 84 86 85 84 81 73 67 63 59 57 57 58 V (KT) LAND 60 64 69 75 80 84 86 85 84 81 73 67 63 59 57 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 68 72 76 81 83 82 79 75 70 65 61 57 51 47 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 10 11 14 14 6 2 2 2 4 3 11 8 7 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 -2 -1 0 -1 -5 -3 0 0 -2 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 328 324 348 354 356 26 34 95 219 93 89 78 359 32 334 274 268 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.4 27.6 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.2 25.1 23.9 24.7 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 156 151 147 139 142 138 131 128 125 124 113 102 111 102 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -49.9 -50.1 -50.1 -49.8 -50.3 -49.5 -49.4 -48.6 -49.1 -48.6 -49.2 -49.3 -50.0 -50.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 77 76 75 78 75 78 74 73 68 64 53 46 43 40 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 34 36 34 36 36 37 36 34 31 29 28 26 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR 26 22 24 42 51 62 67 84 110 106 116 125 126 123 100 89 88 200 MB DIV 57 66 57 36 63 59 58 66 44 43 20 25 -10 5 0 5 -8 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -4 -5 1 0 3 0 1 0 2 -1 2 1 5 0 LAND (KM) 694 660 638 640 654 719 772 832 882 916 972 1057 1189 1327 1507 1647 1824 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.3 19.8 20.3 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.6 22.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 112.1 112.8 113.6 114.3 115.8 117.3 118.6 119.9 121.1 122.4 123.8 125.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 8 11 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 21 25 23 21 21 19 7 9 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 5. 2. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 4. 0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 26. 25. 24. 21. 13. 7. 3. -1. -3. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.8 111.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/02/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.56 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 9.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -9.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 10.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 6.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 2.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -65.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.67 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.4% 50.4% 39.8% 31.8% 22.1% 24.3% 18.6% 13.7% Logistic: 8.0% 20.3% 5.0% 2.9% 2.5% 1.1% 1.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 4.0% 14.0% 4.2% 1.7% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 11.8% 28.3% 16.3% 12.1% 8.7% 8.7% 6.6% 4.6% DTOPS: 58.0% 80.0% 71.0% 52.0% 32.0% 16.0% 6.0% 0.0% SDCON: 34.9% 54.1% 43.6% 32.0% 20.3% 12.3% 6.3% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/02/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##