* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/02/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 61 68 74 80 89 90 88 83 78 71 65 59 53 50 48 48 V (KT) LAND 55 61 68 74 80 89 90 88 83 78 71 65 59 53 50 48 48 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 64 69 74 80 82 79 77 74 69 63 58 53 48 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 12 15 19 10 2 3 2 6 6 5 12 4 8 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -6 -7 -5 -2 -3 -4 -1 0 -2 -5 0 0 1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 335 319 326 350 356 7 14 62 162 331 326 347 348 34 354 281 255 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.1 27.6 27.3 27.7 26.8 26.6 26.0 26.1 25.0 24.4 23.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 158 157 157 155 145 139 136 140 130 128 122 124 112 106 100 107 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -49.9 -50.2 -50.0 -50.2 -49.9 -49.7 -49.4 -49.1 -49.1 -48.9 -49.4 -49.5 -50.0 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 7 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 80 81 77 76 75 77 77 78 74 72 65 57 43 37 32 32 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 31 32 33 35 34 35 34 34 33 30 27 24 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 29 28 39 49 55 65 79 94 100 101 115 123 133 116 109 200 MB DIV 71 65 65 64 46 50 30 54 62 15 15 15 -13 16 -3 0 -22 700-850 TADV -8 -2 0 0 -4 -5 0 1 0 1 1 3 3 1 4 1 9 LAND (KM) 677 673 630 616 613 668 733 784 848 879 926 991 1099 1219 1359 1479 1570 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.0 17.6 18.0 18.4 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.1 21.7 22.1 22.6 23.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.6 111.4 112.1 112.7 113.4 115.1 116.6 117.9 119.5 120.7 121.7 123.0 124.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 6 7 8 7 8 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 21 21 21 17 15 9 5 6 3 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 11. 11. 11. 9. 5. 1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 13. 7. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 19. 25. 34. 35. 33. 28. 23. 16. 10. 4. -2. -5. -7. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 16.4 110.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/02/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.61 10.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.71 9.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 94.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 -9.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 9.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 6.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.6% 55.4% 41.8% 31.1% 20.4% 26.0% 18.5% 14.0% Logistic: 4.6% 13.9% 3.3% 1.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% Bayesian: 1.8% 7.3% 2.6% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.0% 25.5% 15.9% 11.3% 7.4% 9.0% 6.5% 4.8% DTOPS: 37.0% 64.0% 49.0% 48.0% 40.0% 30.0% 22.0% 1.0% SDCON: 22.5% 44.7% 32.4% 29.6% 23.7% 19.5% 14.2% 2.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/02/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##