* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/02/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 69 77 83 94 97 94 89 82 76 68 61 55 52 52 51 V (KT) LAND 55 62 69 77 83 94 97 94 89 82 76 68 61 55 52 52 51 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 69 76 82 93 97 93 85 79 73 66 59 52 46 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 7 7 9 16 13 2 3 3 6 7 5 8 2 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 1 -2 -4 -2 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 12 349 332 321 345 360 358 347 130 292 7 14 328 329 312 352 301 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.3 28.6 28.0 27.2 27.9 27.3 26.7 26.3 26.0 26.0 24.9 23.6 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 158 156 157 150 144 135 142 136 129 125 122 122 111 99 106 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.2 -49.9 -49.9 -49.8 -50.1 -49.6 -49.7 -48.9 -49.2 -48.7 -49.4 -49.7 -50.3 -50.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 81 80 80 76 75 77 76 76 76 74 69 64 56 53 51 45 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 28 30 31 34 36 36 35 34 33 31 28 24 21 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 19 28 27 25 23 44 55 62 77 87 98 88 90 80 80 75 113 200 MB DIV 101 67 57 66 60 41 36 57 83 43 22 13 24 -4 8 -7 11 700-850 TADV -10 -11 -1 3 1 -3 1 0 5 -2 2 0 5 -9 3 -2 5 LAND (KM) 666 685 683 651 629 631 710 763 827 865 878 935 1038 1144 1247 1402 1513 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.4 16.9 17.4 17.8 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.5 21.2 22.0 22.6 22.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 110.7 111.3 112.0 112.6 114.1 115.8 117.3 118.7 119.9 121.0 122.3 123.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 29 25 21 22 22 19 16 4 9 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 57.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 15. 15. 13. 11. 7. 3. -1. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 15. 7. 0. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 22. 28. 39. 42. 39. 34. 27. 21. 13. 6. 0. -3. -3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 15.8 110.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/02/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 11.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 9.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.67 10.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 87.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 -10.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 10.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 5.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 27.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.25 2.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 6.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 40% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.7% 55.1% 46.1% 42.1% 25.9% 39.6% 22.4% 14.5% Logistic: 14.8% 44.4% 18.6% 13.3% 5.5% 4.8% 1.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 11.5% 24.6% 14.7% 7.4% 4.7% 8.2% 0.8% 0.1% Consensus: 17.7% 41.4% 26.4% 20.9% 12.1% 17.5% 8.2% 5.1% DTOPS: 52.0% 81.0% 75.0% 72.0% 54.0% 45.0% 16.0% 2.0% SDCON: 34.8% 61.2% 50.7% 46.4% 33.0% 31.2% 12.1% 3.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/02/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##