* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/01/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 73 81 95 99 98 93 85 79 70 65 58 54 52 49 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 73 81 95 99 98 93 85 79 70 65 58 54 52 49 V (KT) LGEM 50 56 62 68 76 90 98 96 88 81 74 67 62 56 52 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 8 5 7 16 17 14 1 4 5 3 5 2 6 5 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 -1 -4 -7 0 -6 -2 -2 0 -2 0 6 0 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 320 11 348 346 354 12 7 344 86 68 310 301 249 273 30 347 331 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.0 27.6 27.3 27.7 26.8 26.6 26.1 26.0 25.3 24.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 159 157 156 155 144 139 136 140 130 128 123 122 115 106 95 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.3 -50.1 -49.8 -49.8 -49.5 -49.5 -49.0 -48.6 -48.8 -48.8 -49.3 -49.6 -50.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 7 6 7 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 84 82 80 80 78 74 74 73 75 74 71 64 58 50 42 37 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 28 29 34 36 38 38 36 36 32 30 26 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 32 34 30 35 55 60 72 90 99 94 90 100 113 121 107 200 MB DIV 99 93 62 60 58 40 63 43 64 53 19 26 18 1 13 1 0 700-850 TADV -8 -7 -9 -3 3 -4 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 2 LAND (KM) 645 659 682 670 641 598 646 716 755 827 887 941 967 1050 1179 1327 1413 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.5 18.5 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.1 110.8 111.5 112.1 113.3 115.0 116.6 117.9 119.3 120.7 121.8 122.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 7 9 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 27 23 22 22 17 12 7 5 7 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 18. 21. 18. 17. 12. 8. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 18. 9. 1. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 24. 31. 45. 49. 48. 43. 35. 29. 20. 15. 8. 4. 2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.3 109.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/01/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.66 11.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 7.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 10.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.85 -11.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.53 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 9.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 6.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 2.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 -0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 60% is 4.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.8% 60.0% 45.3% 35.4% 22.0% 51.1% 35.2% 15.9% Logistic: 23.2% 58.5% 28.3% 19.7% 5.1% 8.0% 2.1% 0.9% Bayesian: 29.6% 53.4% 34.9% 22.7% 6.1% 12.0% 1.5% 0.1% Consensus: 25.2% 57.3% 36.2% 25.9% 11.1% 23.7% 12.9% 5.6% DTOPS: 14.0% 60.0% 39.0% 32.0% 23.0% 64.0% 42.0% 2.0% SDCON: 19.6% 58.6% 37.6% 28.9% 17.0% 43.8% 27.4% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/01/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##