* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/01/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 65 76 84 87 85 86 80 78 74 66 61 59 58 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 65 76 84 87 85 86 80 78 74 66 61 59 58 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 60 71 81 85 82 77 74 70 65 58 52 48 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 4 9 8 12 19 16 9 2 5 3 8 1 4 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 6 4 0 -5 -6 -6 -6 -7 -4 -3 1 -3 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 314 319 357 345 350 1 3 2 9 56 340 279 281 106 19 18 302 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.4 27.9 27.2 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.3 25.5 25.4 24.7 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 161 162 161 160 158 157 148 142 135 139 134 131 125 117 115 109 99 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.8 -50.3 -50.8 -50.8 -49.8 -49.9 -49.4 -49.7 -49.3 -49.4 -48.5 -49.0 -48.5 -49.2 -49.4 -49.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 85 84 82 80 81 74 75 76 75 76 74 69 60 50 43 35 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 28 30 33 35 36 35 38 35 35 33 29 25 23 22 850 MB ENV VOR 28 23 20 33 35 38 49 62 56 78 94 96 98 111 119 123 106 200 MB DIV 114 92 100 75 72 67 19 60 41 50 47 53 19 7 2 -1 8 700-850 TADV -8 -9 -9 -7 -2 0 -4 3 0 1 0 5 0 0 -2 1 -4 LAND (KM) 632 629 644 659 657 595 607 664 710 754 780 811 905 980 1063 1191 1382 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.4 16.0 16.6 17.1 18.1 19.0 19.7 20.3 21.1 21.8 22.5 22.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.4 109.2 109.9 110.5 111.1 112.5 114.1 115.5 117.0 118.3 119.4 120.6 122.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 36 30 23 18 19 17 10 4 7 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 7 CX,CY: -2/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. 9. 9. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 16. 17. 20. 16. 14. 11. 5. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 5. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 25. 36. 44. 47. 45. 46. 40. 38. 34. 26. 21. 19. 18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.7 108.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/01/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 20.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.88 -7.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -71.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.75 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.2% 40.8% 27.4% 20.3% 14.4% 34.9% 50.5% 31.5% Logistic: 10.0% 38.5% 16.4% 8.7% 1.5% 10.1% 9.8% 2.5% Bayesian: 30.3% 14.0% 4.6% 1.1% 0.0% 1.0% 3.1% 0.7% Consensus: 17.8% 31.1% 16.1% 10.0% 5.3% 15.3% 21.2% 11.6% DTOPS: 14.0% 63.0% 46.0% 31.0% 20.0% 36.0% 29.0% 7.0% SDCON: 15.9% 47.0% 31.0% 20.5% 12.6% 25.6% 25.1% 9.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/01/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##