* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/01/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 51 57 63 77 84 92 90 88 86 83 79 73 70 66 61 V (KT) LAND 40 45 51 57 63 77 84 92 90 88 86 83 79 73 70 66 61 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 49 54 59 71 84 91 90 85 80 74 68 62 56 51 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 4 5 8 7 16 15 11 2 2 0 4 5 9 9 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 2 0 -3 -7 -3 -4 -3 0 2 0 0 1 1 5 SHEAR DIR 353 4 353 15 1 24 11 1 347 343 71 355 280 270 270 306 253 SST (C) 29.9 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.4 28.9 28.3 27.5 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.2 25.5 25.3 24.7 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 164 162 160 157 157 158 153 147 138 139 136 129 124 117 115 109 85 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -51.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.0 -50.1 -49.8 -49.5 -49.1 -48.8 -48.9 -48.7 -49.0 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 89 88 85 84 82 79 75 74 74 74 73 71 65 55 46 39 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 21 23 23 24 29 30 36 35 36 36 36 35 33 29 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 26 27 22 21 25 37 40 64 74 65 92 103 104 105 121 122 149 200 MB DIV 120 98 80 84 72 67 30 49 51 55 47 36 30 -14 -2 23 -2 700-850 TADV -3 -9 -9 -8 -8 1 -3 -1 0 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 7 LAND (KM) 756 727 714 737 766 705 695 744 782 832 867 886 920 988 1081 1157 1168 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 34 28 24 26 25 21 20 7 8 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 21. 23. 24. 23. 22. 19. 14. 10. 6. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 6. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 23. 37. 44. 52. 50. 48. 46. 43. 39. 33. 30. 26. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.5 108.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/01/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 6.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 5.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.90 -6.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 1.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 23.0% 20.0% 16.7% 13.4% 25.7% 27.9% 19.9% Logistic: 0.8% 6.7% 1.9% 0.9% 0.1% 1.9% 4.4% 2.3% Bayesian: 4.7% 7.2% 5.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 5.9% 12.3% 9.1% 6.3% 4.5% 9.2% 10.8% 7.6% DTOPS: 11.0% 21.0% 7.0% 4.0% 4.0% 20.0% 29.0% 4.0% SDCON: 8.4% 16.6% 8.0% 5.1% 4.2% 14.6% 19.9% 5.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/01/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##