* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 08/01/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 38 35 29 27 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 38 35 29 27 25 21 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 36 33 28 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 10 10 13 15 18 15 20 27 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 5 9 1 -3 6 7 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 261 264 229 235 235 218 230 232 247 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.4 24.2 24.0 23.3 23.6 23.3 23.6 23.6 23.0 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 118 106 104 96 99 95 98 98 92 92 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.1 -51.0 -50.6 -50.6 -51.1 -52.1 -52.9 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.2 0.5 -0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 48 49 50 45 45 43 45 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 17 16 16 14 15 13 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 7 2 0 1 8 -3 -16 -29 -38 -13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 2 -6 3 6 0 15 32 0 15 2 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 10 12 14 12 17 7 11 9 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1743 1795 1855 1923 1872 1647 1476 1387 1350 1391 1480 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.0 25.0 26.0 27.0 28.0 29.5 31.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 131.9 133.3 134.6 136.0 137.3 139.9 142.2 143.9 145.2 146.1 146.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 10 8 8 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -9. -13. -16. -21. -26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -18. -20. -23. -29. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.4 131.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 08/01/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 364.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.49 -2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.51 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -20.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.07 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 13.6% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 2.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 08/01/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##