* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 08/01/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 35 29 25 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 35 29 25 25 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 36 33 28 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 10 11 12 15 16 17 18 28 38 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 0 0 4 5 3 -4 0 3 2 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 142 205 249 250 237 243 223 225 234 239 245 231 214 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.7 25.5 24.7 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.2 23.3 23.4 22.9 23.0 23.1 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 111 120 111 101 100 100 95 95 96 90 91 93 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -51.5 -52.2 -53.3 -53.6 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.9 -0.2 -0.9 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 46 45 46 47 48 46 45 44 45 48 48 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 17 17 16 14 14 14 12 9 7 4 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 15 3 0 -1 1 -3 -12 -27 -36 -32 -25 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 1 -5 5 0 7 28 10 -3 28 19 16 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 5 12 14 7 15 12 10 16 9 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1671 1723 1785 1856 1935 1711 1526 1414 1386 1413 1476 1576 1712 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.0 24.9 25.9 26.9 28.3 29.7 31.0 32.7 34.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 130.7 132.2 133.6 135.0 136.5 139.2 141.6 143.5 145.0 146.0 146.6 147.4 148.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 8 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -16. -20. -26. -32. -39. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 18. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -20. -20. -22. -27. -32. -38. -37. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 22.4 130.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 08/01/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.28 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 3.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 377.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.35 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 15.2% 11.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.1% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 08/01/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##