* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/31/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 44 42 39 33 27 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 47 44 42 39 33 27 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 47 44 40 37 32 27 24 20 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 7 10 10 15 15 15 14 19 28 36 24 20 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 1 2 7 7 1 -6 4 3 3 9 1 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 139 209 254 247 228 228 215 228 239 246 239 242 261 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.8 24.8 25.4 24.4 23.7 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.4 23.2 23.0 23.1 22.9 22.4 21.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 112 119 108 101 98 96 95 96 94 92 93 91 85 78 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.7 -51.4 -51.9 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 45 45 46 48 48 44 44 43 46 47 46 38 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 18 17 17 16 14 15 13 11 9 7 9 13 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 11 14 1 0 7 6 -7 -25 -39 -29 2 39 43 63 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 17 22 5 1 4 3 13 20 12 12 21 5 8 19 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 3 1 5 11 11 14 17 11 15 11 10 9 6 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1592 1674 1724 1787 1859 1815 1591 1441 1392 1392 1449 1546 1665 1783 1886 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.3 23.7 24.5 25.5 26.5 27.7 29.0 30.6 32.3 34.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 129.5 130.9 132.3 133.8 135.2 138.0 140.7 142.9 144.4 145.6 146.5 147.3 148.2 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 10 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -28. -34. -41. -47. -50. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 17. 19. 19. 15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -7. -10. -14. -15. -17. -14. -8. -8. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -17. -23. -23. -26. -30. -33. -37. -37. -39. -46. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 22.1 129.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/31/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.26 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 425.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.43 -2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.39 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.5% 17.4% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.8% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.9% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/31/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##