* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/31/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 42 39 36 30 24 20 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 46 42 39 36 30 24 20 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 45 41 37 34 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 7 10 11 17 17 15 19 25 37 29 14 25 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 1 1 5 7 4 -2 -1 4 0 7 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 91 141 210 247 234 233 217 226 229 240 229 260 290 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.6 24.8 25.0 23.8 23.3 23.5 23.2 23.5 23.4 22.7 23.1 22.9 22.3 21.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 111 112 114 102 97 98 95 98 95 88 94 92 85 76 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -50.7 -50.6 -51.2 -51.8 -52.4 -53.2 -53.5 -54.4 -54.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.7 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 47 46 46 47 48 49 48 45 43 43 47 41 42 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 19 18 18 16 15 13 13 12 10 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 17 13 17 1 2 6 -14 -18 -39 -50 -30 -13 -16 -13 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 20 21 5 4 2 22 16 10 8 21 19 -2 -5 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 6 9 15 11 16 15 11 14 6 9 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1457 1575 1653 1701 1759 1921 1692 1526 1397 1393 1457 1541 1647 1793 1953 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.4 22.8 23.2 23.6 24.4 25.2 26.1 27.4 28.7 30.0 31.7 33.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 127.9 129.5 131.0 132.4 133.7 136.7 139.5 141.7 144.1 145.3 145.7 146.5 148.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 13 13 14 12 12 10 7 8 11 11 11 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -10. -13. -17. -21. -27. -33. -40. -45. -49. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 18. 14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -14. -20. -26. -30. -30. -33. -38. -42. -46. -53. -61. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.9 127.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/31/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.25 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 420.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.43 -2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 24.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.59 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -20.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.07 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.5% 16.8% 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.6% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.8% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/31/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##