* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/31/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 42 39 34 28 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 42 39 34 28 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 45 41 37 32 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 5 7 9 14 14 10 10 14 25 37 22 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -4 -1 0 0 7 6 1 -5 2 1 3 5 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 66 68 81 148 218 253 217 218 218 215 238 229 212 179 293 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.6 25.5 23.7 23.3 23.3 23.2 23.1 23.1 22.8 22.7 22.2 22.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 109 110 120 101 96 96 94 93 93 90 89 83 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.8 -52.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 46 46 49 51 52 48 48 46 47 46 50 49 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 21 21 20 18 17 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 12 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 23 18 14 16 2 4 0 -21 -30 -40 -40 -6 32 43 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 5 5 16 23 0 6 8 10 26 5 15 42 44 54 20 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 2 4 4 6 13 17 14 18 9 14 8 17 14 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1365 1459 1560 1652 1705 1822 1848 1632 1504 1423 1414 1464 1608 1717 1814 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.5 21.9 22.2 22.6 22.9 23.8 24.6 25.6 26.7 27.8 29.1 30.7 32.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.9 129.2 130.6 132.0 134.8 137.7 140.3 142.3 144.1 145.4 146.4 147.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 8 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -10. -14. -18. -23. -29. -35. -42. -47. -51. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 15. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -17. -13. -10. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -16. -21. -27. -32. -35. -39. -43. -45. -47. -48. -48. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 21.5 126.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/31/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 459.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 -2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.21 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.73 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.18 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 19.4% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 6.5% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.2% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/31/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##