* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/31/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 47 44 40 35 31 28 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 47 44 40 35 31 28 26 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 46 43 36 31 27 22 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 5 6 3 9 14 14 17 9 12 18 27 23 21 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -5 -4 0 0 4 6 3 -1 -2 6 1 8 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 71 49 52 78 158 258 232 231 204 213 237 255 214 217 210 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.0 24.8 24.6 24.6 24.6 23.5 23.6 23.1 23.0 23.4 22.9 22.8 22.3 22.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 114 112 110 110 110 99 99 94 92 96 91 90 84 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.5 -52.2 -52.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 50 49 46 49 49 49 48 49 45 46 47 41 42 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 22 21 21 19 18 16 15 15 13 10 9 10 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 22 18 13 4 8 5 -8 -22 -34 -33 -16 5 21 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 2 7 23 22 4 6 22 7 12 9 35 11 42 48 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 7 6 10 17 15 19 15 10 12 6 15 9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1298 1381 1471 1576 1662 1769 1935 1708 1531 1429 1386 1416 1552 1656 1748 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.5 21.8 22.2 22.5 23.4 24.2 25.1 26.2 27.4 28.6 30.1 32.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.5 126.8 128.0 129.4 130.7 133.6 136.7 139.3 141.7 143.7 145.3 146.4 146.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 14 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 10 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 481 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -11. -15. -19. -25. -31. -37. -44. -49. -53. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. -18. -16. -12. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -16. -20. -25. -29. -32. -34. -39. -42. -46. -47. -49. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.1 125.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/31/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 476.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 -2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.23 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.83 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.41 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 18.1% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.1% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 3.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/31/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##