* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/30/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 60 56 51 47 41 36 32 29 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 60 56 51 47 41 36 32 29 27 23 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 59 53 49 44 38 32 28 24 21 18 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 9 8 6 12 18 17 14 11 15 19 33 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 0 -5 -3 0 0 6 1 -4 -5 1 3 -2 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 68 25 43 60 259 258 240 232 215 234 239 242 221 180 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 25.0 25.0 24.9 24.7 25.6 24.0 23.5 23.3 23.3 23.4 23.0 22.8 22.7 22.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 114 113 111 121 104 99 96 96 96 92 90 88 85 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -52.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.6 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 53 50 51 49 48 51 50 52 49 51 50 50 48 44 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 26 25 23 21 19 18 17 16 16 14 12 11 12 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 33 35 28 23 16 0 1 2 -13 -28 -33 -38 -8 -4 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 18 14 -1 0 12 7 -6 15 18 25 11 13 46 38 45 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -2 1 1 4 10 16 18 19 16 10 13 9 19 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1230 1311 1401 1491 1588 1720 1867 1818 1587 1433 1375 1391 1474 1558 1631 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.9 21.2 21.6 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.6 25.4 26.5 27.8 29.3 30.9 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.5 126.8 128.1 129.4 132.1 135.2 138.0 140.7 143.0 144.7 145.9 146.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 9 9 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -20. -26. -32. -38. -45. -50. -54. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -14. -17. -17. -19. -20. -20. -17. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -18. -24. -29. -33. -36. -38. -42. -45. -48. -50. -54. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.6 124.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/30/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.15 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.70 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 498.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 -2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.54 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 17.6% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 5.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/30/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##