* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/30/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 66 61 56 51 45 39 35 30 27 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 66 61 56 51 45 39 35 30 27 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 58 53 48 40 35 30 26 22 19 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 7 8 12 3 10 12 16 18 12 11 16 23 30 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 -1 -5 0 0 4 6 3 -5 -3 1 1 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 88 44 40 40 103 282 241 244 216 225 225 256 234 197 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 24.9 24.9 24.9 24.6 24.5 24.4 23.4 23.7 23.3 23.5 23.4 22.7 22.8 22.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 113 113 113 110 109 109 98 100 96 97 95 88 90 87 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.9 -52.6 -53.4 -54.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 55 54 52 51 49 51 49 52 51 50 48 48 49 48 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 27 25 23 22 19 18 16 16 16 13 11 10 10 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 21 39 34 36 28 16 4 5 2 -10 -18 -30 -38 -33 -18 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 26 25 6 2 18 4 0 22 13 5 4 25 34 35 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -5 -2 -1 0 6 14 22 15 20 15 11 11 6 17 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1144 1207 1274 1371 1475 1650 1760 1929 1685 1490 1381 1364 1428 1495 1586 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.8 21.2 21.6 21.9 22.5 23.5 24.3 25.0 26.1 27.4 28.6 29.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.9 124.1 125.3 126.7 128.1 130.5 133.6 136.8 139.5 142.1 144.3 145.6 145.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 12 13 15 14 13 12 10 7 7 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -28. -35. -41. -48. -53. -57. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -16. -19. -20. -19. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -14. -19. -25. -31. -35. -40. -43. -44. -48. -53. -56. -59. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.4 122.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/30/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 509.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -49.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.46 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.5% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.9% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/30/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##