* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP072026 07/30/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 77 75 70 65 55 47 42 36 33 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 77 75 70 65 55 47 42 36 33 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 76 70 64 58 48 40 34 29 25 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 5 2 5 9 10 6 11 15 17 13 8 17 18 24 15 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 3 0 -1 -1 -2 2 2 -2 -2 1 2 -1 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 285 246 74 8 4 40 285 276 255 233 228 233 256 242 217 206 234 SST (C) 26.6 25.8 25.2 24.9 25.1 24.6 25.4 23.7 23.3 23.4 23.1 22.8 23.0 22.7 22.9 22.2 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 122 116 113 115 110 118 101 97 97 93 89 91 89 91 83 82 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.4 -50.2 -50.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.9 -52.2 -53.1 -54.0 -54.7 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 54 56 55 54 53 51 49 51 52 54 53 52 48 51 48 46 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 28 26 25 22 19 18 17 16 17 14 13 10 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 9 16 29 26 26 16 6 -15 -10 -10 -12 -30 -36 -42 -37 -59 -84 200 MB DIV -34 -22 18 20 -5 10 17 3 3 21 16 9 4 35 21 14 9 700-850 TADV 5 3 -2 -2 -2 0 3 11 13 13 18 8 16 8 17 11 17 LAND (KM) 1074 1136 1207 1272 1345 1541 1692 1801 1864 1638 1490 1424 1415 1452 1546 1666 1789 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 20.3 20.6 21.0 21.4 22.2 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.5 26.6 27.7 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 121.5 122.7 123.9 125.1 126.3 129.0 131.8 134.4 137.5 140.2 142.4 144.0 145.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 12 10 8 8 9 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -23. -28. -35. -41. -48. -55. -61. -65. -68. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -17. -16. -18. -18. -19. -17. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -10. -15. -25. -33. -38. -44. -47. -49. -53. -57. -61. -64. -70. -77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 20.0 121.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/30/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.08 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 587.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 -1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -57.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.56 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 15.1% 12.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.1% 4.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.5% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072026 GENEVIEVE 07/30/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##