* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/07/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 41 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 37 41 43 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 8 8 9 11 12 17 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -2 -4 -7 -7 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 96 66 41 30 34 3 358 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 145 146 146 147 148 151 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 41 40 41 45 45 46 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 19 7 11 15 12 13 13 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -36 -15 4 -8 -45 -62 -16 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2274 2245 2216 2177 2139 2056 1965 1881 1772 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.4 11.2 11.1 11.0 10.6 10.4 10.0 9.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 135.2 135.6 136.0 136.5 136.9 138.0 139.1 140.3 141.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 26 30 31 29 24 24 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):210/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 574 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 8. 15. 22. 27. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 11. 13. 14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.6 135.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/07/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.71 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 3.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 235.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.22 0.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.29 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 13.2% 11.5% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 6.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 2.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.8% 4.8% 3.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 1.2% 4.9% 2.9% 1.8% 0.1% 0.5% 0.5% 0.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/07/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##