* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/07/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 27 28 31 35 36 36 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 27 27 28 31 35 36 36 35 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 25 25 26 28 29 29 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 14 10 8 9 12 13 16 17 17 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 0 -1 -4 -8 -8 -6 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 104 111 95 68 35 29 5 350 6 24 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 143 143 144 146 146 147 148 149 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 43 42 44 44 44 48 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 24 24 22 10 14 6 14 11 17 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 -21 -34 -12 1 -46 -44 -40 -3 10 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2286 2290 2294 2267 2240 2177 2092 1990 1932 1861 1788 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.5 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.6 10.2 9.9 9.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.8 134.9 135.0 135.4 135.7 136.5 137.5 138.7 139.6 140.6 141.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 25 26 28 30 29 24 22 24 30 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 14. 20. 24. 29. 33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. -9. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. 1. 5. 6. 6. 5. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.2 134.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/07/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.69 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.45 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 219.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.66 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 0.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/07/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##