* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * AMANDA EP012026 06/06/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 28 28 28 30 34 35 35 33 34 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 28 28 28 30 34 35 35 33 34 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 24 25 27 29 30 30 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 16 13 9 10 10 12 13 18 18 17 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 1 0 -3 -6 -7 -8 -4 0 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 100 103 112 98 69 36 20 355 354 6 18 34 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 140 141 143 144 146 147 147 148 148 147 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.1 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 51 51 50 46 46 46 44 45 48 53 57 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 15 22 20 18 6 14 9 12 17 15 17 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 6 -28 -36 -15 -20 -51 -42 -19 7 -3 -18 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2298 2294 2290 2284 2279 2230 2154 2069 1956 1875 1838 1816 1798 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.2 11.9 11.6 11.3 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.4 10.1 9.6 9.3 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 134.6 134.8 134.9 135.1 135.3 135.9 136.8 137.8 139.2 140.3 141.1 141.6 141.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 4 5 6 7 5 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 22 24 25 26 28 31 27 23 24 28 27 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):215/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 38. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 4. 5. 5. 3. 4. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.4 134.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012026 AMANDA 06/06/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.69 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 12.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012026 AMANDA 06/06/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##